RB Bragantino

3 - 1

Internacional

RB Bragantino hosted Internacional in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 3-1. Goals: Fernando Santos (18'), Juninho Capixaba (45'), Tiago Volpi (51' pen), Tiago Volpi (52' pen), Gustavo Marques (56'), B. Aguirre (79'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 5 waves, achieving 35% precision with a net result of $-599.88 (ROI: -10.3%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.79 to 1.88; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.07 to 2.18.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting RB Bragantino. Average expected value was 8.6%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$11.80. ### Wave 2 — Minute 18' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 18'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Internacional 0. Average expected value was 15.7%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Internacional 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 50.8% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 13.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** RB Bragantino leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Internacional -1. Average expected value was 44.9%, with a combined stake of $1726. The sharpest edge was on Internacional -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.4% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 42.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** RB Bragantino leading 1-0 at 49'. Juninho Capixaba scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 8.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.9% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 53' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** RB Bragantino leading 2-0 at 53'. Tiago Volpi scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Over 3.25 and Over 2.5 and Under 3.25. Average expected value was 32.8%, with a combined stake of $2892. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 24.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 5 of 11 trades won, netting +$588.32.

- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Internacional -1: AI saw 86.4% vs market's 43.5% (42.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Internacional -1: AI saw 85.4% vs market's 43.5% (42.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 53'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 45.5% (24.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 53'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 45.5% (24.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 53'** — Over/Under Under 3.25: AI saw 72.9% vs market's 49.8% (23.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$400.00 (ROI: +57.1%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$11.80 (ROI: +118.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/4L/1V, $-505.84 (ROI: -19.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/4L/1V, $-505.84 (ROI: -19.8%)

Possession was 53–47 in RB Bragantino's favor. RB Bragantino had 18 shots (7 on target) versus Internacional's 8 (2 on target). Expected goals: RB Bragantino 1.73 — Internacional 0.93. Corners: 6-1.