Palmeiras

1 - 1

Cruzeiro

Palmeiras hosted Cruzeiro in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: K. Arroyo (11'), Felipe Anderson (20'). OddsFlow deployed 18 trades across 4 waves, achieving 89% precision with a net result of +$4864.14 (ROI: +107.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.93 to 2.07; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.71 to 1.82.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.25. Average expected value was 26.9%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 56.7% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 6.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$5.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 17' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Cruzeiro leading 0-1 at 17'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Palmeiras -0.5. Average expected value was 17.5%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Palmeiras -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 51.7% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 15.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$350.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Felipe Anderson's equalizer at 20'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Cruzeiro -0.5 and Under 3.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 17.8%, with a combined stake of $3334. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 65.9% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 18.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 14 trades won, netting +$4509.14. ### Wave 4 — Minute 51' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 51'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cruzeiro 0. Average expected value was 34.3%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Cruzeiro 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.6% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 32.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00.

- **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Cruzeiro 0: AI saw 68.6% vs market's 36.4% (32.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Cruzeiro 0: AI saw 68.3% vs market's 36.4% (32.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 65.9% vs market's 47.6% (18.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 65.5% vs market's 47.6% (17.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 17'** — Asian Handicap Palmeiras -0.5: AI saw 51.7% vs market's 36.4% (15.3pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 7W/0L/1V, +$2263.38 (ROI: +104.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 7W/0L/1V, +$2245.76 (ROI: +103.9%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$350.00 (ROI: +175.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$5.00 (ROI: +50.0%)

Possession was 47–53 in Palmeiras's deficit. Palmeiras had 16 shots (2 on target) versus Cruzeiro's 10 (4 on target). Expected goals: Palmeiras 0.93 — Cruzeiro 0.42. Corners: 6-4.