Palmeiras1 - 0Chapecoense-sc
PalmeirasWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 17', 35', 42' — and still finish +$181?
Match Overview
Palmeiras hosted Chapecoense-sc in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-0. Goals: Paulinho (65'), Italo (90'). Palmeiras received a red card (Allan Elias, 43'). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 4 waves, achieving 19% precision with a net result of +$180.50 (ROI: +3.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.75 to -1.5; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.87 to 1.94; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.23 to 1.35.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.75. Average expected value was 15.7%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$10.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 17' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 17'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chapecoense-sc -1. Average expected value was 22.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Chapecoense-sc -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.1% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 19.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Chapecoense-sc -1 and Under 1.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 21.8%, with a combined stake of $5208. The sharpest edge was on Chapecoense-sc -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.3% probability versus the market's implied 55.2% — a 21.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.81. **Result:** 3 of 18 trades won, netting +$670.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 42'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chapecoense-sc -0.5. Average expected value was 10.6%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Chapecoense-sc -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 50.8% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 8.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Chapecoense-sc -1: AI saw 76.3% vs market's 55.2% (21.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Chapecoense-sc -1: AI saw 75.9% vs market's 55.2% (20.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Chapecoense-sc -1: AI saw 76.3% vs market's 55.6% (20.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Chapecoense-sc -1: AI saw 75.9% vs market's 55.6% (20.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Chapecoense-sc -1: AI saw 75.6% vs market's 55.2% (20.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/1L/3V, +$100.00 (ROI: +5.4%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 1W/3L/3V, +$35.00 (ROI: +1.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 1W/3L/3V, +$35.00 (ROI: +1.8%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$10.50 (ROI: +105.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 48–52 in Palmeiras's deficit. Palmeiras had 13 shots (4 on target) versus Chapecoense-sc's 14 (3 on target). Expected goals: Palmeiras 0.61 — Chapecoense-sc 0.34. Corners: 3-2.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +3.1% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$100.00.
A positive result with +3.1% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$180.50. Top performer: Active Trader at +$100.00.
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