Mirassol2 - 1Remo
Mirassol2 trades, 0% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Mirassol hosted Remo in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 2-1. Goals: Marllon (30' OG), L. Picco (45'), Joao Victor (54'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.95 to 1.85; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 2.1 to 1.95.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 71' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Mirassol leading 2-1 at 71'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Remo 0. Average expected value was 37.7%, with a combined stake of $1510. The sharpest edge was on Remo 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.9% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 36.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap Remo 0: AI saw 80.9% vs market's 44.4% (36.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap Remo 0: AI saw 80.0% vs market's 44.4% (35.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 56–44 in Mirassol's favor. Mirassol had 8 shots (4 on target) versus Remo's 13 (2 on target). Expected goals: Mirassol 1.47 — Remo 0.8. Corners: 6-3.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at 0.0% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$0.00.
A marginally negative session at 0.0% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$0.00.
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