Mirassol2 - 1Gremio
MirassolWhy did AI enter 2 times at 13', 35' — and still finish $-1483?
Match Overview
Mirassol hosted Gremio in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 2-1. Goals: Bruno Santos (16'), Edson Carioca (40'), Carlos Vinicius (78'). Mirassol received a red card (Denilson, 36'). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-1483.00 (ROI: -50.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 2.2 to 2.1; the home moneyline shortened from 2.25 to 1.9.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 13' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 13'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Gremio -0.5. Average expected value was 23.5%, with a combined stake of $345. The sharpest edge was on Gremio -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.9% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 14.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-345.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Mirassol leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Gremio 0 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 30.4%, with a combined stake of $2595. The sharpest edge was on Gremio 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.4% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 30.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 0 of 4 trades won, netting $-1138.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Gremio 0: AI saw 77.4% vs market's 46.5% (30.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Gremio 0: AI saw 77.2% vs market's 46.5% (30.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 70.5% vs market's 45.5% (25.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 70.3% vs market's 45.5% (24.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 13'** — Asian Handicap Gremio -0.5: AI saw 68.9% vs market's 54.1% (14.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-345.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-567.00 (ROI: -43.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-571.00 (ROI: -43.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 45–55 in Mirassol's deficit. Mirassol had 14 shots (3 on target) versus Gremio's 9 (4 on target). Expected goals: Mirassol 1.38 — Gremio 0.59. Corners: 5-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -50.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-345.00.
A tough session at -50.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-345.00.
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