Mirassol

1 - 0

Fluminense

Mirassol hosted Fluminense in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-0. Goals: Denilson (36'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 5 waves, achieving 29% precision with a net result of +$1582.47 (ROI: +22.7%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.95 to 1.81; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 2 to 2.09; the home moneyline shortened from 2.8 to 2.61.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.25. Average expected value was 25.0%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 54.2% probability versus the market's implied 47.8% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.09. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fluminense 0. Average expected value was 29.3%, with a combined stake of $347. The sharpest edge was on Fluminense 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.8% probability versus the market's implied 48.1% — a 17.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.08. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-347.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Fluminense 0 and Over 1.5 and Fluminense -0.5. Average expected value was 30.6%, with a combined stake of $3358. The sharpest edge was on Fluminense -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.4% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 39.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 2 of 10 trades won, netting $-683.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Mirassol leading 1-0 at 46'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fluminense -1. Average expected value was 41.2%, with a combined stake of $1873. The sharpest edge was on Fluminense -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 93.9% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 39.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1545.23. ### Wave 5 — Minute 68' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Mirassol leading 1-0 at 68'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fluminense -1. Average expected value was 43.1%, with a combined stake of $1390. The sharpest edge was on Fluminense -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.3% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 41.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1077.25.

- **Minute 68'** — Asian Handicap Fluminense -1: AI saw 97.3% vs market's 56.3% (41.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Fluminense -1: AI saw 93.9% vs market's 54.8% (39.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Fluminense -0.5: AI saw 76.4% vs market's 37.4% (39.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Fluminense -1: AI saw 93.7% vs market's 54.8% (38.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Fluminense -0.5: AI saw 75.6% vs market's 37.4% (38.2pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$1077.25 (ROI: +77.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/4L, +$434.35 (ROI: +16.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/4L, +$427.88 (ROI: +16.4%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-347.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 33–67 in Mirassol's deficit. Mirassol had 13 shots (8 on target) versus Fluminense's 9 (1 on target). Expected goals: Mirassol 0.51 — Fluminense 0.59. Corners: 4-3.