Mirassol1 - 1Chapecoense-sc
MirassolWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 66', 74' — and still finish +$6180?
Match Overview
Mirassol hosted Chapecoense-sc in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: Eduardo (71'), Joao Victor (81' OG), Giovanni Augusto (82'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 3 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$6180.09 (ROI: +114.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -1.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chapecoense-sc -1.25. Average expected value was 10.4%, with a combined stake of $314. The sharpest edge was on Chapecoense-sc -1.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.3% probability versus the market's implied 54.6% — a 5.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.83. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$260.62. ### Wave 2 — Minute 66' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 66'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 9.8%, with a combined stake of $3020. The sharpest edge was on Over 0.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 12.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$2450.54. ### Wave 3 — Minute 74' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Mirassol leading 1-0 at 74'. Eduardo scored moments ago. Chapecoense-sc made 4 substitutions. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chapecoense-sc -1. Average expected value was 61.7%, with a combined stake of $2071. The sharpest edge was on Chapecoense-sc -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 96.9% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 59.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$3468.92.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 74'** — Asian Handicap Chapecoense-sc -1: AI saw 96.9% vs market's 37.4% (59.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 74'** — Asian Handicap Chapecoense-sc -1: AI saw 96.8% vs market's 37.4% (59.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 74'** — Asian Handicap Chapecoense-sc -1: AI saw 96.8% vs market's 37.4% (59.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Over/Under Over 0.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 57.9% (12.1pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$1988.29 (ROI: +116.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$1966.43 (ROI: +116.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$1964.75 (ROI: +116.3%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$260.62 (ROI: +83.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 59–41 in Mirassol's favor. Mirassol had 21 shots (4 on target) versus Chapecoense-sc's 10 (4 on target). Expected goals: Mirassol 1.09 — Chapecoense-sc 0.28. Corners: 8-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +114.3% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$1988.29.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +114.3% ROI on 10 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$1988.29.
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