Internacional4 - 1Vasco DA Gama
InternacionalWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 12', 35' — and still finish $-1287?
Match Overview
Internacional hosted Vasco DA Gama in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 4-1. Goals: G. Mercado (10'), J. Carbonero (21'), Alerrandro (24'), Alerrandro (25'), A. Bernabei (62'), J. Carbonero (71'), Andres Gomez (85'). Vasco DA Gama received a red card (C. Cuesta, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 3 waves, achieving 17% precision with a net result of $-1287.40 (ROI: -98.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.95 to 2.02; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.83 to 1.96.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.25. Average expected value was 13.2%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$9.60. ### Wave 2 — Minute 12' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Internacional leading 1-0 at 12'. G. Mercado scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Vasco DA Gama -0.5. Average expected value was 17.1%, with a combined stake of $297. The sharpest edge was on Vasco DA Gama -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.5% probability versus the market's implied 51.8% — a 10.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.93. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-297.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** Internacional leading 2-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 10.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 56.8% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 9.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 12'** — Asian Handicap Vasco DA Gama -0.5: AI saw 62.5% vs market's 51.8% (10.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$9.60 (ROI: +96.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-297.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-500.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-500.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 39–61 in Internacional's deficit. Internacional had 12 shots (7 on target) versus Vasco DA Gama's 14 (3 on target). Expected goals: Internacional 1.1 — Vasco DA Gama 0.42. Corners: 3-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -98.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at +$9.60.
A tough session at -98.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at +$9.60.
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