Internacional2 - 0Fluminense
InternacionalWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 40' — and still finish $-2281?
Match Overview
Internacional hosted Fluminense in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 2-0. Goals: A. Bernabei (39'), Alerrandro (49'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 2 waves, achieving 20% precision with a net result of $-2280.93 (ROI: -38.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.94 to 1.89; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.98 to 1.93.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Fluminense 0 and Over 1.5 and Fluminense. Average expected value was 25.1%, with a combined stake of $3566. The sharpest edge was on Fluminense 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.4% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 35.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-1280.93. ### Wave 2 — Minute 40' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Internacional leading 1-0 at 40'. A. Bernabei scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Fluminense -1 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 33.4%, with a combined stake of $2425. The sharpest edge was on Fluminense -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.6% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 45.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 0 of 4 trades won, netting $-1000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Fluminense -1: AI saw 95.6% vs market's 50.0% (45.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Fluminense -1: AI saw 95.5% vs market's 50.0% (45.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Fluminense 0: AI saw 77.4% vs market's 42.1% (35.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Fluminense 0: AI saw 76.8% vs market's 42.1% (34.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Fluminense: AI saw 47.7% vs market's 26.7% (21.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/3L/1V, $-1133.60 (ROI: -37.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/3L/1V, $-1147.33 (ROI: -38.2%)
Match Statistics
Internacional had 17 shots (8 on target) versus Fluminense's 0 (0 on target). Expected goals: Internacional 1.73 — Fluminense 0.
Verdict
A tough session at -38.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-1133.60.
A tough session at -38.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-1133.60.
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