Internacional1 - 2Cruzeiro
InternacionalWhy did AI enter 4 times at 10', 35', 43', 50' — and still finish +$957?
Match Overview
Internacional hosted Cruzeiro in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-2. Goals: Kaio Jorge (11'), Matheus Pereira (64'), J. Carbonero (83'). Internacional received a red card (Victor Gabriel, 59'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 4 waves, achieving 64% precision with a net result of +$956.66 (ROI: +22.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2 to 1.92.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cruzeiro 0. Average expected value was 14.9%, with a combined stake of $274. The sharpest edge was on Cruzeiro 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.3% probability versus the market's implied 47.8% — a 8.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.09. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$290.66. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Cruzeiro leading 0-1 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Internacional -0.5. Average expected value was 15.0%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 67.1% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 17.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Cruzeiro leading 0-1 at 43'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cruzeiro 0. Average expected value was 7.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Cruzeiro 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 54.4% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 5.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 50' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Cruzeiro leading 0-1 at 50'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Cruzeiro. Average expected value was 6.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$666.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 67.1% vs market's 50.0% (17.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 67.0% vs market's 50.0% (16.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$333.00 (ROI: +16.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$333.00 (ROI: +16.7%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$290.66 (ROI: +106.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 47–53 in Internacional's deficit. Internacional had 21 shots (3 on target) versus Cruzeiro's 13 (6 on target). Expected goals: Internacional 1.74 — Cruzeiro 1.79. Corners: 5-7.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +22.4% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$333.00.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +22.4% ROI on 11 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$333.00.
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