Gremio

3 - 2

Santos

Gremio hosted Santos in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 3-2. Goals: Gabriel Barbosa (32'), Carlos Vinicius (40'), Gabriel Barbosa (55'), Carlos Vinicius (59'), Tete (63'). Santos received a red card (Gustavo Henrique, 84'). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 5 waves, achieving 20% precision with a net result of $-1081.40 (ROI: -14.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.9 to 1.89.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.25. Average expected value was 26.1%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 57.8% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 6.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 13' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 13'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Santos 0. Average expected value was 19.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Santos 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.2% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 16.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Santos leading 0-1 at 35'. Gabriel Barbosa scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Santos and Gremio +0.5. Average expected value was 24.4%, with a combined stake of $2684. The sharpest edge was on Gremio +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.4% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 37.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$1020.80. ### Wave 4 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Carlos Vinicius's equalizer at 40'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 3.25 and Santos 0 and Draw and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 28.9%, with a combined stake of $3400. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 72.4% probability versus the market's implied 47.8% — a 24.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.09. **Result:** All 12 trades lost, netting $-3400.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 65' (Score: 3-2) **Context:** Gremio leading 3-2 at 65'. Tete scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Santos -1. Average expected value was 50.3%, with a combined stake of $1436. The sharpest edge was on Santos -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.0% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 48.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1507.80.

- **Minute 65'** — Asian Handicap Santos -1: AI saw 97.0% vs market's 48.8% (48.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 65'** — Asian Handicap Santos -1: AI saw 97.0% vs market's 48.8% (48.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Gremio +0.5: AI saw 83.4% vs market's 45.5% (37.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Gremio +0.5: AI saw 83.2% vs market's 45.5% (37.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 41'** — Over/Under Under 3.25: AI saw 72.4% vs market's 47.8% (24.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 2W/7L, $-433.30 (ROI: -11.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 9 trades, 2W/7L, $-438.10 (ROI: -11.7%)

Possession was 49–51 in Gremio's deficit. Gremio had 11 shots (5 on target) versus Santos's 12 (4 on target). Expected goals: Gremio 1.56 — Santos 1.25. Corners: 8-4.