Gremio1 - 1Fluminense
GremioWhy did AI enter 2 times at 35', 42' — and still finish +$1897?
Match Overview
Gremio hosted Fluminense in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-1. OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 2 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of +$1897.12 (ROI: +34.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.88 to 2.05; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 2.1 to 2; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.6 to 3.2.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Under 1.5 and Under 2.5 and Gremio. Average expected value was 25.3%, with a combined stake of $4240. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 80.6% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 29.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** 9 of 15 trades won, netting +$1897.12. ### Wave 2 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 42'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fluminense 0. Average expected value was 19.0%, with a combined stake of $1332. The sharpest edge was on Fluminense 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.1% probability versus the market's implied 51.5% — a 14.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.94. **Result:** 0 of 6 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 80.6% vs market's 51.3% (29.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 80.8% vs market's 51.8% (28.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 80.6% vs market's 51.8% (28.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 80.8% vs market's 52.4% (28.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 80.8% vs market's 65.2% (15.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 5W/3L/2V, +$996.33 (ROI: +37.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 4W/3L/2V, +$900.79 (ROI: +34.1%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/0L/2V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 44–56 in Gremio's deficit. Gremio had 6 shots (2 on target) versus Fluminense's 3 (1 on target). Expected goals: Gremio 0.49 — Fluminense 0.1. Corners: 2-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +34.0% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$996.33.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +34.0% ROI on 21 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$996.33.
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