Gremio

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Corinthians

Gremio hosted Corinthians in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-3. Goals: Gabriel Mec (7'), Gabriel Mec (8'), Andre (45'), Andre (65'), Kaio Cesar (67'). Gremio received a red card (Thiago Beltrame, 75'). OddsFlow deployed 34 trades across 7 waves, achieving 32% precision with a net result of $-1025.50 (ROI: -9.8%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2 with Over odds moving from 1.78 to 1.85; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.42 to 3.17.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Gremio. Average expected value was 18.7%, with a combined stake of $25. The sharpest edge was on Gremio (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 38.9% probability versus the market's implied 31.5% — a 7.3 percentage point gap at odds of 3.17. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-25.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Gremio leading 1-0 at 10'. Gabriel Mec scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Corinthians 0. Average expected value was 21.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Corinthians 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.1% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 19.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$155.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Gremio leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Gremio and Corinthians -0.5. Average expected value was 15.3%, with a combined stake of $2659. The sharpest edge was on Corinthians -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.8% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 28.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 2 of 8 trades won, netting +$389.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 43' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Gremio leading 1-0 at 43'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Under 2.25. Average expected value was 17.6%, with a combined stake of $1041. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 66.5% probability versus the market's implied 49.0% — a 17.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.04. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1041.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Andre's equalizer at 45'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 3.25 and Over 2.5 and Draw and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 21.9%, with a combined stake of $4430. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 27.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 6 of 16 trades won, netting $-1419.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 59' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Andre's equalizer at 45'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$266.50. ### Wave 7 — Minute 67' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Corinthians leading 1-2 at 67'. Kaio Cesar scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Gremio +1. Average expected value was 35.5%, with a combined stake of $1590. The sharpest edge was on Gremio +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.6% probability versus the market's implied 47.1% — a 34.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.125. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting +$649.00.

- **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap Gremio +1: AI saw 81.6% vs market's 47.1% (34.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap Gremio +1: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 47.1% (33.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Gremio +1: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 47.6% (32.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Corinthians -0.5: AI saw 78.8% vs market's 50.0% (28.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Corinthians -0.5: AI saw 78.2% vs market's 50.0% (28.2pp gap). correctly identified.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$155.00 (ROI: +77.5%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-25.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/4L, $-149.50 (ROI: -6.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 11 trades, 4W/6L/1V, $-439.50 (ROI: -11.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 14 trades, 4W/9L/1V, $-566.50 (ROI: -13.9%)

Possession was 41–59 in Gremio's deficit. Gremio had 10 shots (3 on target) versus Corinthians's 24 (9 on target). Expected goals: Gremio 1.43 — Corinthians 1.61. Corners: 3-7.