Fluminense

2 - 2

Vitoria

Fluminense hosted Vitoria in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 2-2. Goals: John Kennedy (36'), Renato Kayzer (60' pen), Renato Kayzer (63' pen), Rene (67'), K. Serna (90'). OddsFlow deployed 27 trades across 8 waves, achieving 70% precision with a net result of +$8338.95 (ROI: +54.5%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -1.25.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 44.7%, with a combined stake of $1095. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 71.6% probability versus the market's implied 49.5% — a 22.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.02. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1116.90. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Vitoria -0.5. Average expected value was 19.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Vitoria -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.8% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 17.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$250.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Vitoria -0.5 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 20.4%, with a combined stake of $2530. The sharpest edge was on Vitoria -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.0% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 19.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$2190.95. ### Wave 4 — Minute 40' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fluminense leading 1-0 at 40'. John Kennedy scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Vitoria -1.5 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 27.1%, with a combined stake of $2728. The sharpest edge was on Vitoria -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 90.9% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 36.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$2425.60. ### Wave 5 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fluminense leading 1-0 at 49'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Vitoria -1. Average expected value was 58.0%, with a combined stake of $1244. The sharpest edge was on Vitoria -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.2% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 55.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$2177.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 61' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fluminense leading 1-0 at 61'. Renato Kayzer scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Fluminense. Average expected value was 19.1%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 65.6% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 18.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2000.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 64' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Renato Kayzer's equalizer at 63'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 11.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 61.9% — a 8.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.615. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$307.50. ### Wave 8 — Minute 68' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Vitoria leading 1-2 at 68'. Rene scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Fluminense +0.5 and Over 3.5 and Vitoria and Under 3.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 22.7%, with a combined stake of $5000. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 76.9% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 34.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 6 of 10 trades won, netting +$1871.00.

- **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Vitoria -1: AI saw 92.2% vs market's 36.4% (55.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Vitoria -1: AI saw 92.2% vs market's 36.4% (55.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Vitoria -1.5: AI saw 90.9% vs market's 54.8% (36.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Vitoria -1.5: AI saw 90.3% vs market's 54.8% (35.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 68'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 76.9% vs market's 42.1% (34.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 12 trades, 8W/4L, +$3339.28 (ROI: +49.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 12 trades, 8W/4L, +$3325.27 (ROI: +49.3%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$1116.90 (ROI: +102.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$307.50 (ROI: +61.5%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$250.00 (ROI: +125.0%)

Possession was 57–43 in Fluminense's favor. Fluminense had 12 shots (5 on target) versus Vitoria's 8 (3 on target). Expected goals: Fluminense 1.05 — Vitoria 1.25. Corners: 5-3.