Fluminense

2 - 1

Sao Paulo

Fluminense hosted Sao Paulo in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 2-1. Goals: John Kennedy (19'), John Kennedy (20'), A. Canobbio (44'), A. Canobbio (45'), Matheus Doria (79'), R. Castillo (90'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 4 waves, achieving 54% precision with a net result of +$3775.38 (ROI: +88.9%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5; the home moneyline shortened from 1.91 to 1.78.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Sao Paulo. Average expected value was 37.1%, with a combined stake of $25. The sharpest edge was on Sao Paulo (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 30.4% probability versus the market's implied 20.5% — a 9.9 percentage point gap at odds of 4.88. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-25.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 21' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fluminense leading 1-0 at 21'. John Kennedy scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sao Paulo -1.5. Average expected value was 32.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Sao Paulo -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.4% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 30.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$175.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fluminense leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Sao Paulo -1 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 29.0%, with a combined stake of $2721. The sharpest edge was on Sao Paulo -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.0% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 44.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$3275.38. ### Wave 4 — Minute 58' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** Fluminense leading 2-0 at 58'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Under 2.75. Average expected value was 34.3%, with a combined stake of $1300. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 72.5% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 23.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting +$350.00.

- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Sao Paulo -1: AI saw 87.0% vs market's 42.1% (44.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Sao Paulo -1: AI saw 86.6% vs market's 42.1% (44.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 21'** — Asian Handicap Sao Paulo -1.5: AI saw 83.4% vs market's 53.3% (30.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 58'** — Over/Under Under 2.75: AI saw 72.5% vs market's 48.8% (23.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 58'** — Over/Under Under 2.75: AI saw 72.5% vs market's 49.0% (23.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/0L/2V, +$1817.50 (ROI: +90.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/0L/2V, +$1807.88 (ROI: +90.1%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$175.00 (ROI: +87.5%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-25.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 50–50 in Fluminense's deficit. Fluminense had 10 shots (3 on target) versus Sao Paulo's 14 (7 on target). Expected goals: Fluminense 1.48 — Sao Paulo 1.01. Corners: 3-5.