Fluminense

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RB Bragantino

Fluminense hosted RB Bragantino in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: Eduardo Sasha (27'), Ignacio (90'). RB Bragantino received a red card (A. Sant'Anna, 64'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 1 wave, achieving 25% precision with a net result of $-1247.00 (ROI: -25.4%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -0.5.

### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** RB Bragantino leading 0-1 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting RB Bragantino and Under 2.5 and Over 2.75 and RB Bragantino 0 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 29.3%, with a combined stake of $4918. The sharpest edge was on RB Bragantino 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.7% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 36.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 4 of 16 trades won, netting $-1247.00.

- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap RB Bragantino 0: AI saw 73.7% vs market's 37.4% (36.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap RB Bragantino 0: AI saw 73.2% vs market's 37.4% (35.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Moneyline RB Bragantino: AI saw 74.4% vs market's 50.3% (24.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Moneyline RB Bragantino: AI saw 74.4% vs market's 52.4% (22.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Moneyline RB Bragantino: AI saw 74.4% vs market's 52.4% (22.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 2W/6L, $-504.50 (ROI: -21.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 2W/6L, $-742.50 (ROI: -28.8%)

Possession was 67–33 in Fluminense's favor. Fluminense had 23 shots (4 on target) versus RB Bragantino's 6 (2 on target). Expected goals: Fluminense 1.33 — RB Bragantino 0.87. Corners: 11-4.