Fluminense

2 - 1

Chapecoense-sc

Fluminense hosted Chapecoense-sc in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 2-1. Goals: J. Savarino (55' pen), Enio (78'), John Kennedy (86'). Chapecoense-sc received a red card (Eduardo Doma, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 22 trades across 6 waves, achieving 32% precision with a net result of $-3059.97 (ROI: -26.8%).

The Asian Handicap held at -1.5 but home odds shifted from 1.91 to 1.86.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Chapecoense-sc -1 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 16.8%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Chapecoense-sc -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.9% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 23.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 0 of 6 trades won, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 30.8% probability versus the market's implied 23.1% — a 7.7 percentage point gap at odds of 4.333. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 40'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 6.4%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 33.0% probability versus the market's implied 25.0% — a 8.0 percentage point gap at odds of 4. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 45'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Fluminense. Average expected value was 7.1%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 55.5% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 5.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting $-750.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 61' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fluminense leading 1-0 at 61'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Chapecoense-sc -1.5 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 25.0%, with a combined stake of $3439. The sharpest edge was on Chapecoense-sc -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 90.7% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 40.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$2690.03. ### Wave 6 — Minute 81' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Enio's equalizer at 78'. Fluminense made 4 substitutions. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Chapecoense-sc -0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 36.7%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Chapecoense-sc -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.9% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 42.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2000.00.

- **Minute 81'** — Asian Handicap Chapecoense-sc -0.5: AI saw 80.9% vs market's 38.5% (42.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 81'** — Asian Handicap Chapecoense-sc -0.5: AI saw 80.7% vs market's 38.5% (42.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 81'** — Asian Handicap Chapecoense-sc -0.5: AI saw 80.1% vs market's 38.5% (41.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap Chapecoense-sc -1.5: AI saw 90.7% vs market's 50.6% (40.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap Chapecoense-sc -1.5: AI saw 90.6% vs market's 50.6% (40.0pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 3W/4L/1V, $-852.67 (ROI: -20.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/4L/1V, $-1103.65 (ROI: -30.3%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/4L/1V, $-1103.65 (ROI: -30.3%)

Fluminense had 30 shots (12 on target) versus Chapecoense-sc's 1 (0 on target). Expected goals: Fluminense 2.47 — Chapecoense-sc 0.03.