Flamengo

1 - 1

Sao Paulo

Flamengo hosted Sao Paulo in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-1. OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 3 waves, achieving 12% precision with a net result of $-3799.00 (ROI: -66.6%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -1.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.9 to 1.8.

### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Flamengo -1. Average expected value was 20.2%, with a combined stake of $325. The sharpest edge was on Flamengo -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.9% probability versus the market's implied 51.8% — a 14.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.93. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-325.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Flamengo and Flamengo -1.5. Average expected value was 14.1%, with a combined stake of $2291. The sharpest edge was on Flamengo -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 50.0% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 11.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-2291.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 39'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Flamengo -1 and Over 2.5 and Over 1.5 and Flamengo -0.5. Average expected value was 20.1%, with a combined stake of $3092. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.4% probability versus the market's implied 51.8% — a 18.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.93. **Result:** 2 of 8 trades won, netting $-1183.00.

- **Minute 39'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.4% vs market's 51.8% (18.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 39'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.1% vs market's 51.8% (18.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 39'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.4% vs market's 52.4% (18.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 39'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.1% vs market's 52.4% (17.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Flamengo -1: AI saw 65.9% vs market's 51.8% (14.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-325.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 1W/6L, $-1675.50 (ROI: -63.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 1W/6L, $-1798.50 (ROI: -65.3%)

Possession was 50–50 in Flamengo's deficit. Flamengo had 3 shots (1 on target) versus Sao Paulo's 2 (0 on target). Expected goals: Flamengo 0.24 — Sao Paulo 0.15. Corners: 0-1.