Flamengo

3 - 0

Coritiba

Flamengo hosted Coritiba in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 3-0. Goals: Samuel Lino (11'), Pedro (60'), Samuel Lino (70'), Samuel Lino (71'). Coritiba received a red card (Pedro Rocha, 31'). OddsFlow deployed 5 trades across 3 waves, achieving 40% precision with a net result of $-1495.30 (ROI: -65.7%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.5 to -1.25.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.75. Average expected value was 31.2%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 59.1% probability versus the market's implied 49.0% — a 10.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.04. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$5.20. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Coritiba -1. Average expected value was 24.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Coritiba -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.9% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 21.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Flamengo leading 1-0 at 35'. Coritiba down to 10 men (Pedro Rocha red card 31'). 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Coritiba -1.5 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 29.7%, with a combined stake of $2067. The sharpest edge was on Coritiba -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.9% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 38.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting $-1300.50.

- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Coritiba -1.5: AI saw 81.9% vs market's 43.5% (38.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Coritiba -1.5: AI saw 81.6% vs market's 43.5% (38.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Coritiba -1: AI saw 65.9% vs market's 44.4% (21.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Over/Under Over 2.75: AI saw 59.1% vs market's 49.0% (10.1pp gap). correctly identified.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$5.20 (ROI: +52.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-519.50 (ROI: -40.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-781.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 62–38 in Flamengo's favor. Flamengo had 21 shots (9 on target) versus Coritiba's 10 (2 on target). Expected goals: Flamengo 1.62 — Coritiba 0.83. Corners: 6-4.