Cruzeiro

1 - 1

Fluminense

Cruzeiro hosted Fluminense in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: John Kennedy (43'), Matheus Pereira (75'). OddsFlow deployed 5 trades across 3 waves, achieving 20% precision with a net result of +$83.50 (ROI: +10.6%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the home moneyline shortened from 2.11 to 1.93.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.25. Average expected value was 8.4%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-5.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cruzeiro -0.5. Average expected value was 12.2%, with a combined stake of $275. The sharpest edge was on Cruzeiro -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.0% probability versus the market's implied 49.8% — a 8.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.01. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-275.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 74' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Fluminense leading 0-1 at 74'. Fluminense made 3 substitutions. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$363.50.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, +$88.50 (ROI: +11.4%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, $-5.00 (ROI: -50.0%)

Possession was 61–39 in Cruzeiro's favor. Cruzeiro had 19 shots (3 on target) versus Fluminense's 10 (5 on target). Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.21 — Fluminense 0.5. Corners: 5-4.