Cruzeiro

0 - 1

Botafogo

Cruzeiro hosted Botafogo in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 0-1. Goals: G. Justino (41'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 3 waves, achieving 40% precision with a net result of $-930.00 (ROI: -29.7%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.95 to 1.75.

### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 11.6%, with a combined stake of $1030. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 32.5% probability versus the market's implied 27.4% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 3.65. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-1030.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 52' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Botafogo leading 0-1 at 52'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Botafogo. Average expected value was 65.6%, with a combined stake of $1100. The sharpest edge was on Botafogo (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 56.3% probability versus the market's implied 25.0% — a 31.3 percentage point gap at odds of 4. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1100.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 67' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Botafogo leading 0-1 at 67'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.

- **Minute 52'** — Moneyline Botafogo: AI saw 56.3% vs market's 25.0% (31.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 52'** — Moneyline Botafogo: AI saw 55.2% vs market's 25.0% (30.2pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-465.00 (ROI: -29.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-465.00 (ROI: -29.7%)

Possession was 61–39 in Cruzeiro's favor. Cruzeiro had 15 shots (6 on target) versus Botafogo's 8 (4 on target). Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.52 — Botafogo 0.4. Corners: 9-1.