Cruzeiro

1 - 3

Atletico-MG

Cruzeiro hosted Atletico-MG in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-3. Goals: A. Minda (12'), Maycon (31' pen), Maycon (32' pen), M. Cassierra (72'), Fabricio Bruno (84' pen), Kaio Jorge (86' pen). Cruzeiro received a red card (K. Arroyo, 66'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 1 wave, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-1566.14 (ROI: -43.2%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 2.04 to 1.87; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.93 to 2; the home moneyline shortened from 2.03 to 1.87.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Atletico-MG leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Cruzeiro 0 and Over 2.5 and Cruzeiro. Average expected value was 29.3%, with a combined stake of $3623. The sharpest edge was on Cruzeiro 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.0% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 43.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-1566.14.

- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Cruzeiro 0: AI saw 82.0% vs market's 38.5% (43.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Cruzeiro 0: AI saw 82.0% vs market's 38.5% (43.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Cruzeiro: AI saw 58.2% vs market's 26.7% (31.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Cruzeiro: AI saw 45.7% vs market's 26.7% (19.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 72.5% vs market's 57.9% (14.6pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-775.44 (ROI: -42.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-790.70 (ROI: -43.9%)

Cruzeiro had 14 shots (2 on target) versus Atletico-MG's 0 (0 on target).