Coritiba

2 - 2

Internacional

Coritiba hosted Internacional in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 2-2. Goals: J. Lavega (28'), R. Borre (69'), Rodrigo Moledo (84'), F. Torres (90'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 7 waves, achieving 53% precision with a net result of +$2529.60 (ROI: +27.2%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.94 to 2; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.91 to 1.99.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Internacional. Average expected value was 93.3%, with a combined stake of $1380. The sharpest edge was on Internacional (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 71.8% probability versus the market's implied 37.2% — a 34.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.69. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-1380.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Internacional 0. Average expected value was 36.2%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Internacional 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.1% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 34.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Internacional and Internacional +0.5. Average expected value was 19.5%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Internacional +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.3% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 23.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-1200.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 31' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Coritiba leading 1-0 at 31'. J. Lavega scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Internacional -0.5. Average expected value was 32.1%, with a combined stake of $2223. The sharpest edge was on Internacional -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.8% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 46.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$2376.60. ### Wave 5 — Minute 70' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after R. Borre's equalizer at 69'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 16.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 53.0% probability versus the market's implied 29.4% — a 23.6 percentage point gap at odds of 3.4. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$2400.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 74' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after R. Borre's equalizer at 69'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.4%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$333.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 83' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after R. Borre's equalizer at 69'. Internacional made 5 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Internacional 0. Average expected value was 25.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Internacional 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 23.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00.

- **Minute 31'** — Asian Handicap Internacional -0.5: AI saw 91.8% vs market's 45.5% (46.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 31'** — Asian Handicap Internacional -0.5: AI saw 91.8% vs market's 45.5% (46.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 0'** — Moneyline Internacional: AI saw 71.8% vs market's 37.2% (34.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Internacional 0: AI saw 88.1% vs market's 54.1% (34.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 83'** — Asian Handicap Internacional 0: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 56.3% (23.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$1788.90 (ROI: +49.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$1787.70 (ROI: +49.5%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$333.00 (ROI: +66.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-1380.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 36–64 in Coritiba's deficit. Coritiba had 8 shots (3 on target) versus Internacional's 18 (2 on target). Expected goals: Coritiba 0.42 — Internacional 1.84. Corners: 3-8.