Corinthians

3 - 2

Sao Paulo

Corinthians hosted Sao Paulo in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 3-2. Goals: Raniele (17'), Luciano (41'), Matheuzinho (52'), Breno Bidon (57'), Breno Bidon (58'), Matheuzinho (89' OG). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 3 waves, achieving 30% precision with a net result of $-245.60 (ROI: -4.2%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the home moneyline shortened from 2.18 to 2.03.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Sao Paulo. Average expected value was 39.3%, with a combined stake of $294. The sharpest edge was on Sao Paulo (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 32.1% probability versus the market's implied 23.0% — a 9.0 percentage point gap at odds of 4.34. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-294.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 51' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Luciano's equalizer at 41'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Sao Paulo 0 and Draw and Sao Paulo -1. Average expected value was 35.0%, with a combined stake of $5118. The sharpest edge was on Sao Paulo -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.7% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 52.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 2 of 8 trades won, netting $-218.10. ### Wave 3 — Minute 57' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Corinthians leading 2-1 at 57'. Breno Bidon scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$266.50.

- **Minute 53'** — Asian Handicap Sao Paulo -1: AI saw 94.7% vs market's 42.6% (52.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 53'** — Asian Handicap Sao Paulo -1: AI saw 94.9% vs market's 43.5% (51.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Sao Paulo -1: AI saw 92.2% vs market's 43.5% (48.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Sao Paulo 0: AI saw 70.8% vs market's 37.4% (33.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Sao Paulo 0: AI saw 70.8% vs market's 37.4% (33.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$830.50 (ROI: +53.8%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-16.60 (ROI: -0.9%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-294.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-765.50 (ROI: -33.7%)

Possession was 49–51 in Corinthians's deficit. Corinthians had 15 shots (6 on target) versus Sao Paulo's 6 (3 on target). Expected goals: Corinthians 1.37 — Sao Paulo 1.02. Corners: 7-7.