Corinthians

0 - 0

Atletico Paranaense

Corinthians hosted Atletico Paranaense in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 4 waves, achieving 22% precision with a net result of $-1533.50 (ROI: -30.2%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.95 to 1.98; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 1.5.

### Wave 1 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 45'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Atletico Paranaense 0 and Atletico Paranaense. Average expected value was 25.7%, with a combined stake of $2578. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Paranaense 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.9% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 40.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 0 of 4 trades won, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 50' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 50'. Corinthians made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 7.0%, with a combined stake of $1500. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting $-450.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 59' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 59'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 8.1%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$416.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 66' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 66'. Atletico Paranaense made 3 substitutions. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 25.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 0.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 60.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 10.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.

- **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense 0: AI saw 82.9% vs market's 42.6% (40.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense 0: AI saw 82.5% vs market's 42.6% (39.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 45'** — Moneyline Atletico Paranaense: AI saw 36.5% vs market's 23.1% (13.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-450.00 (ROI: -19.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-500.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-583.50 (ROI: -25.5%)

Possession was 51–49 in Corinthians's favor. Corinthians had 7 shots (4 on target) versus Atletico Paranaense's 4 (1 on target). Expected goals: Corinthians 1.35 — Atletico Paranaense 0.66. Corners: 6-2.