Corinthians

1 - 0

Atletico-MG

Corinthians hosted Atletico-MG in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-0. Goals: Z. Labyad (88'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 5 waves, achieving 12% precision with a net result of $-3371.00 (ROI: -68.2%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.88 to 1.85; the Over/Under stayed at 2 with Over odds moving from 1.88 to 1.82.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2. Average expected value was 47.0%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Over 2 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 71.5% probability versus the market's implied 54.9% — a 16.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.82. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico-MG -0.5. Average expected value was 7.4%, with a combined stake of $267. The sharpest edge was on Atletico-MG -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 54.1% probability versus the market's implied 48.3% — a 5.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.07. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-267.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 36' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 36'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Atletico-MG 0 and Over 1.5 and Atletico-MG. Average expected value was 18.8%, with a combined stake of $2565. The sharpest edge was on Atletico-MG 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.1% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 19.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 7 trades lost, netting $-2565.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 56' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 56'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 9.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 0.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$571.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 71' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 71'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 44.7%, with a combined stake of $1100. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 55.0% probability versus the market's implied 29.9% — a 25.2 percentage point gap at odds of 3.35. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-1100.00.

- **Minute 71'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 55.0% vs market's 29.9% (25.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 71'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 54.9% vs market's 29.9% (25.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Atletico-MG 0: AI saw 59.1% vs market's 40.0% (19.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Atletico-MG 0: AI saw 58.8% vs market's 40.0% (18.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 66.2% vs market's 47.6% (18.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-267.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/4L, $-1264.50 (ROI: -61.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 1W/7L, $-1829.50 (ROI: -70.0%)

Possession was 58–42 in Corinthians's favor. Corinthians had 10 shots (4 on target) versus Atletico-MG's 9 (2 on target). Expected goals: Corinthians 0.56 — Atletico-MG 1.63. Corners: 3-0.