Chapecoense-sc

2 - 3

Remo

Chapecoense-sc hosted Remo in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 2-3. Goals: Yago Pikachu (16'), Yago Pikachu (17'), Neto Pessoa (24'), Neto Pessoa (25'), Rafael Carvalheira (47'), Jaja (51'), Bruno Leonardo (87' OG). OddsFlow deployed 22 trades across 4 waves, achieving 45% precision with a net result of +$2110.53 (ROI: +25.1%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.37 to 2.55.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Remo. Average expected value was 16.8%, with a combined stake of $25. The sharpest edge was on Remo (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 39.5% probability versus the market's implied 32.8% — a 6.8 percentage point gap at odds of 3.05. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$48.40. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Neto Pessoa's equalizer at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Draw and Remo 0. Average expected value was 17.1%, with a combined stake of $3541. The sharpest edge was on Remo 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.1% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 33.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 2 of 9 trades won, netting $-332.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 47' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Chapecoense-sc leading 2-1 at 47'. Rafael Carvalheira scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Remo -0.5 and Under 4.5 and Under 4.25. Average expected value was 34.1%, with a combined stake of $2244. The sharpest edge was on Remo -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.1% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 47.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 2 of 7 trades won, netting +$506.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 50' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Chapecoense-sc leading 2-1 at 50'. Rafael Carvalheira scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Remo -1 and Under 5.5. Average expected value was 29.0%, with a combined stake of $2587. The sharpest edge was on Remo -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.8% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 44.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1888.63.

- **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Remo -0.5: AI saw 84.1% vs market's 36.4% (47.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Remo -0.5: AI saw 83.6% vs market's 36.4% (47.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap Remo -1: AI saw 97.8% vs market's 53.3% (44.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap Remo -1: AI saw 97.4% vs market's 53.3% (44.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Remo 0: AI saw 78.1% vs market's 44.4% (33.7pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 4W/5L, +$1056.13 (ROI: +25.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 4W/7L, +$1006.00 (ROI: +23.8%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$48.40 (ROI: +193.6%)

Possession was 51–49 in Chapecoense-sc's favor. Chapecoense-sc had 16 shots (7 on target) versus Remo's 11 (4 on target). Expected goals: Chapecoense-sc 1.9 — Remo 1.09. Corners: 2-9.