Chapecoense-sc

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RB Bragantino

Chapecoense-sc hosted RB Bragantino in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-2. Goals: Y. Bolasie (23'), Gabriel (41'), Lucas Barbosa (73'). RB Bragantino received a red card (Caue Nascimento, 30'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 1 wave, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-1025.90 (ROI: -32.7%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.41 to 3.96.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Chapecoense-sc leading 1-0 at 25'. Y. Bolasie scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting RB Bragantino -0.5 and Under 2.5 and Chapecoense-sc. Average expected value was 20.8%, with a combined stake of $3138. The sharpest edge was on Chapecoense-sc (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 72.3% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 20.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.909. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-1025.90.

- **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Chapecoense-sc: AI saw 72.3% vs market's 52.4% (20.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap RB Bragantino -0.5: AI saw 70.4% vs market's 51.3% (19.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap RB Bragantino -0.5: AI saw 69.8% vs market's 51.9% (17.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 59.8% vs market's 42.1% (17.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 59.8% vs market's 43.5% (16.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-504.20 (ROI: -32.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-521.70 (ROI: -32.6%)

Possession was 54%–50% in Chapecoense-sc's favor. Chapecoense-sc had 18 shots (3 on target) versus RB Bragantino's 0 (0 on target).