Botafogo

0 - 0

Vitoria

Botafogo hosted Vitoria in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 7 waves, achieving 57% precision with a net result of +$273.65 (ROI: +4.8%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.98 to 2; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.7 to 1.85.

### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Vitoria -0.5. Average expected value was 5.6%, with a combined stake of $215. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$226.35. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Vitoria 0 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 16.5%, with a combined stake of $2002. The sharpest edge was on Vitoria 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.7% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 19.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 0 of 4 trades won, netting $-1002.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 41' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 41'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Vitoria -0.5. Average expected value was 5.1%, with a combined stake of $515. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$412.30. ### Wave 4 — Minute 50' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 50'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Vitoria -0.5. Average expected value was 5.7%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$350.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 65' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 65'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 7.1%, with a combined stake of $1500. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting $-475.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 70' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 70'. Vitoria made 6 substitutions. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$454.50. ### Wave 7 — Minute 78' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 78'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$307.50.

- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Vitoria 0: AI saw 55.7% vs market's 36.4% (19.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Vitoria 0: AI saw 55.4% vs market's 36.4% (19.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$307.50 (ROI: +61.5%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$226.35 (ROI: +105.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, $-125.00 (ROI: -5.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, $-135.20 (ROI: -5.4%)

Possession was 57–43 in Botafogo's favor. Botafogo had 19 shots (6 on target) versus Vitoria's 5 (1 on target). Expected goals: Botafogo 1.38 — Vitoria 0.39. Corners: 9-2.