Botafogo

2 - 1

Santos

Botafogo hosted Santos in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 2-1. Goals: L. E. Jales do Nascimento (41'), L. E. Jales do Nascimento (43'), A. Barreal (57'), K. Barria (90'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 4 waves, achieving 25% precision with a net result of $-1624.00 (ROI: -29.8%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.9 to 2.15.

### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Santos 0. Average expected value was 27.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Santos 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.1% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 24.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Santos 0 and Over 1.5 and Santos. Average expected value was 14.6%, with a combined stake of $3184. The sharpest edge was on Santos 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.1% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 24.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 2 of 9 trades won, netting $-1457.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 42'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 19.1%, with a combined stake of $1550. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 35.6% probability versus the market's implied 23.8% — a 11.8 percentage point gap at odds of 4.2. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$550.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 58' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Barreal's equalizer at 57'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 18.1%, with a combined stake of $517. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 36.2% probability versus the market's implied 26.7% — a 9.5 percentage point gap at odds of 3.75. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-517.00.

- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Santos 0: AI saw 62.1% vs market's 37.4% (24.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Santos 0: AI saw 69.1% vs market's 44.4% (24.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Santos 0: AI saw 68.3% vs market's 44.4% (23.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 42'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 35.6% vs market's 23.8% (11.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 42'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 35.6% vs market's 25.0% (10.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 2W/6L, $-678.50 (ROI: -25.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/5L, $-745.50 (ROI: -28.6%)

Possession was 48–52 in Botafogo's deficit. Botafogo had 17 shots (7 on target) versus Santos's 22 (9 on target). Expected goals: Botafogo 1.48 — Santos 2.62. Corners: 5-5.