Botafogo2 - 2Internacional
BotafogoWhy did AI enter 4 times at 15', 25', 52', 60' — and still finish +$5061?
Match Overview
Botafogo hosted Internacional in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 2-2. Goals: Danilo (54'), J. Carbonero (59'), C. Medina (66'), A. Bernabei (74'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 4 waves, achieving 69% precision with a net result of +$5060.95 (ROI: +64.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.37 to 2.69.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Internacional 0. Average expected value was 12.2%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Internacional 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 10.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Internacional 0. Average expected value was 14.3%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Internacional 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.2% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 12.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 52' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 52'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Internacional -1. Average expected value was 26.5%, with a combined stake of $4060. The sharpest edge was on Internacional -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.6% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 39.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$3736.45. ### Wave 4 — Minute 60' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after J. Carbonero's equalizer at 59'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Internacional 0 and Over 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 11.2%, with a combined stake of $2590. The sharpest edge was on Internacional 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.7% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 21.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** 4 of 5 trades won, netting +$1324.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 56'** — Asian Handicap Internacional -1: AI saw 94.6% vs market's 55.6% (39.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap Internacional -1: AI saw 92.1% vs market's 54.1% (38.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap Internacional -1: AI saw 92.0% vs market's 54.1% (37.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 60'** — Asian Handicap Internacional 0: AI saw 71.7% vs market's 50.6% (21.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Internacional 0: AI saw 60.2% vs market's 47.6% (12.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$1824.30 (ROI: +63.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$1618.75 (ROI: +67.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$1617.90 (ROI: +67.9%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)
Match Statistics
Botafogo had 16 shots (7 on target) versus Internacional's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +64.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$1824.30.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +64.5% ROI on 13 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$1824.30.
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