Botafogo3 - 1Corinthians
BotafogoWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 35', 70' — and still finish $-1594?
Match Overview
Botafogo hosted Corinthians in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 3-1. Goals: Arthur Cabral (7'), R. Garro (11'), Arthur Cabral (32'), Arthur Cabral (70'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 3 waves, achieving 29% precision with a net result of $-1593.80 (ROI: -36.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.89 to 2.05; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.21 to 2.4.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Corinthians. Average expected value was 32.9%, with a combined stake of $31. The sharpest edge was on Corinthians (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 42.7% probability versus the market's implied 30.9% — a 11.9 percentage point gap at odds of 3.24. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-31.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Botafogo leading 2-1 at 35'. Arthur Cabral scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 4.5 and Corinthians 0. Average expected value was 30.9%, with a combined stake of $2995. The sharpest edge was on Corinthians 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.6% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 26.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 8 trades lost, netting $-2995.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 70' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Botafogo leading 2-1 at 70'. Arthur Cabral scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 52.4%, with a combined stake of $1364. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 83.5% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 34.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1432.20.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 70'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 83.5% vs market's 48.8% (34.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 70'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 83.5% vs market's 48.8% (34.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 70'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 81.8% vs market's 48.8% (33.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 70'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 81.8% vs market's 48.8% (33.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Corinthians 0: AI saw 81.6% vs market's 55.6% (26.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-31.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/4L, $-779.15 (ROI: -35.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/4L, $-783.65 (ROI: -36.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 35–65 in Botafogo's deficit. Botafogo had 13 shots (5 on target) versus Corinthians's 19 (1 on target). Expected goals: Botafogo 0.82 — Corinthians 1.12. Corners: 2-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -36.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at $-31.00.
A tough session at -36.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at $-31.00.
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