Bahia2 - 2Santos
BahiaWhy did AI enter 4 times at 15', 25', 77', 83' — and still finish +$9940?
Match Overview
Bahia hosted Santos in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 2-2. Goals: B. Rollheiser (21' pen), B. Rollheiser (22' pen), B. Rollheiser (45' pen), Luciano Juba (76'), Willian Jose (83'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 4 waves, achieving 79% precision with a net result of +$9940.00 (ROI: +136.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the home moneyline shortened from 1.93 to 1.68.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Santos -0.5. Average expected value was 2.7%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$230.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Santos leading 0-1 at 25'. B. Rollheiser scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bahia 0. Average expected value was 16.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Bahia 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.8% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 14.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 77' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Santos leading 1-2 at 77'. Luciano Juba scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bahia +0.5 and Bahia +1.5. Average expected value was 53.1%, with a combined stake of $3590. The sharpest edge was on Bahia +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.3% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 57.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$5760.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 83' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after Willian Jose's equalizer at 83'. Santos made 5 substitutions. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Santos 0. Average expected value was 37.0%, with a combined stake of $2500. The sharpest edge was on Santos 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.5% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 44.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 2 of 5 trades won, netting +$2750.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 77'** — Asian Handicap Bahia +1.5: AI saw 97.3% vs market's 40.0% (57.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 77'** — Asian Handicap Bahia +1.5: AI saw 97.2% vs market's 40.0% (57.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 77'** — Asian Handicap Bahia +1.5: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 40.0% (57.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 77'** — Asian Handicap Bahia +0.5: AI saw 81.3% vs market's 36.4% (44.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 84'** — Asian Handicap Santos 0: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 36.4% (44.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/0L/1V, +$3895.50 (ROI: +144.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/0L/1V, +$3894.00 (ROI: +144.4%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$1920.50 (ROI: +113.2%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$230.00 (ROI: +115.0%)
Match Statistics
Bahia had 18 shots (5 on target) versus Santos's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +136.4% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$3895.50.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +136.4% ROI on 14 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$3895.50.
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