Bahia

1 - 1

Gremio

Bahia hosted Gremio in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: Viery (62'), M. Sanabria (72'). OddsFlow deployed 38 trades across 5 waves, achieving 53% precision with a net result of +$3750.67 (ROI: +40.5%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75; the home moneyline shortened from 1.81 to 1.7.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Under 2.75. Average expected value was 43.3%, with a combined stake of $60. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 73.3% probability versus the market's implied 50.8% — a 22.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.97. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$56.80. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 31.0%, with a combined stake of $1765. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 46.9% probability versus the market's implied 31.3% — a 15.6 percentage point gap at odds of 3.2. **Result:** All 9 trades won, netting +$3873.90. ### Wave 3 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 38'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Gremio -0.5 and Under 1.5 and Under 1.75. Average expected value was 36.9%, with a combined stake of $3553. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 75.3% probability versus the market's implied 48.5% — a 26.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.06. **Result:** 6 of 14 trades won, netting +$106.27. ### Wave 4 — Minute 63' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Gremio leading 0-1 at 63'. Viery scored moments ago. Gremio made 6 substitutions. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Gremio. Average expected value was 32.6%, with a combined stake of $2057. The sharpest edge was on Gremio (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 77.9% probability versus the market's implied 53.5% — a 24.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.87. **Result:** All 9 trades lost, netting $-2057.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 72' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Gremio leading 0-1 at 72'. M. Sanabria scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Under 1.75. Average expected value was 45.2%, with a combined stake of $1834. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 88.1% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 39.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 3 of 4 trades won, netting +$1770.70.

- **Minute 72'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 88.1% vs market's 48.8% (39.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 72'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 87.5% vs market's 48.8% (38.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 72'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 87.6% vs market's 48.8% (38.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 72'** — Over/Under Under 1.75: AI saw 87.6% vs market's 54.9% (32.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 41'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 75.3% vs market's 48.5% (26.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 12 trades, 6W/5L/1V, +$1263.07 (ROI: +42.5%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 12 trades, 6W/5L/1V, +$1226.16 (ROI: +39.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 12 trades, 6W/5L/1V, +$1204.64 (ROI: +38.8%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$56.80 (ROI: +94.7%)

Possession was 59–41 in Bahia's favor. Bahia had 15 shots (6 on target) versus Gremio's 3 (1 on target). Expected goals: Bahia 2.02 — Gremio 0.16. Corners: 6-3.