Bahia

1 - 2

Cruzeiro

Bahia hosted Cruzeiro in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-2. Goals: Luciano Juba (27' pen), Kaua Moraes (41'), Kaua Moraes (43'), Kenji (86'). OddsFlow deployed 29 trades across 7 waves, achieving 45% precision with a net result of $-698.44 (ROI: -4.8%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.25. Average expected value was 32.6%, with a combined stake of $982. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 67.3% probability versus the market's implied 54.6% — a 12.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.83. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$815.06. ### Wave 2 — Minute 17' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 17'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bahia -0.5. Average expected value was 18.4%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Bahia -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.2% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 15.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Bahia and Bahia -0.5 and Cruzeiro -1. Average expected value was 17.6%, with a combined stake of $4000. The sharpest edge was on Cruzeiro -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.4% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 25.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 4 of 8 trades won, netting +$550.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 42' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Bahia leading 1-0 at 42'. Kaua Moraes scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Cruzeiro 0. Average expected value was 17.0%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.7% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 23.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$2125.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Kaua Moraes's equalizer at 43'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Bahia and Bahia -0.5 and Over 3.5 and Bahia +0.5 and Under 4.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 20.7%, with a combined stake of $6500. The sharpest edge was on Bahia +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.5% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 44.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 3 of 13 trades won, netting $-4001.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 50' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Kaua Moraes's equalizer at 43'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cruzeiro 0. Average expected value was 2.3%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$512.50. ### Wave 7 — Minute 70' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 70'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.8%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.

- **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Bahia +0.5: AI saw 84.5% vs market's 40.0% (44.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Bahia +0.5: AI saw 84.4% vs market's 40.0% (44.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Bahia +0.5: AI saw 84.1% vs market's 40.0% (44.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Cruzeiro -1: AI saw 74.4% vs market's 48.8% (25.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Cruzeiro -1: AI saw 74.1% vs market's 48.8% (25.3pp gap). correctly identified.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$815.06 (ROI: +83.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 10 trades, 5W/5L, +$170.50 (ROI: +3.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 5W/5L, +$170.50 (ROI: +3.4%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/5L, $-1654.50 (ROI: -47.3%)

Possession was 45–55 in Bahia's deficit. Bahia had 8 shots (3 on target) versus Cruzeiro's 20 (7 on target). Expected goals: Bahia 1.1 — Cruzeiro 1.52. Corners: 5-8.