Bahia

1 - 1

Corinthians

Bahia hosted Corinthians in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: F. Angileri (8'), A. Veliz (10'), David Duarte (45'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 4 waves, achieving 29% precision with a net result of $-553.80 (ROI: -10.9%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.82 to 2.1; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.1 to 2.4.

### Wave 1 — Minute 37' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Corinthians leading 0-1 at 37'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 11.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 59.6% probability versus the market's implied 49.8% — a 9.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.01. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after David Duarte's equalizer at 45'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5. Average expected value was 10.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 50.7% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 8.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after David Duarte's equalizer at 45'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Corinthians and Draw. Average expected value was 13.4%, with a combined stake of $2066. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 38.1% probability versus the market's implied 29.4% — a 8.7 percentage point gap at odds of 3.4. **Result:** 4 of 8 trades won, netting +$1446.20. ### Wave 4 — Minute 54' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after David Duarte's equalizer at 45'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Corinthians 0. Average expected value was 41.4%, with a combined stake of $1035. The sharpest edge was on Corinthians 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.3% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 39.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00.

- **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap Corinthians 0: AI saw 79.3% vs market's 40.0% (39.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap Corinthians 0: AI saw 78.5% vs market's 40.0% (38.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/4L/1V, $-274.80 (ROI: -10.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/4L/1V, $-279.00 (ROI: -10.9%)

Possession was 60–40 in Bahia's favor. Bahia had 12 shots (2 on target) versus Corinthians's 5 (2 on target). Expected goals: Bahia 0.65 — Corinthians 0.17. Corners: 6-2.