Bahia

2 - 1

Botafogo

Bahia hosted Botafogo in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 2-1. Goals: Huguinho (7'), Raul Steffens (57' OG), N. Ferraresi (57' OG), David Duarte (90'). Bahia received a red card (Ademir, 38'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 3 waves, achieving 38% precision with a net result of +$959.60 (ROI: +24.7%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 2.01 to 1.99.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Botafogo. Average expected value was 29.3%, with a combined stake of $25. The sharpest edge was on Botafogo (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 37.2% probability versus the market's implied 26.0% — a 11.2 percentage point gap at odds of 3.85. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-25.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Botafogo leading 0-1 at 10'. Huguinho scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bahia +0.5. Average expected value was 25.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Bahia +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.7% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 23.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$180.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Botafogo leading 0-1 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Botafogo and Bahia +0.5 and Under 3.5 and Under 3. Average expected value was 17.1%, with a combined stake of $3660. The sharpest edge was on Bahia +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.1% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 24.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** 4 of 10 trades won, netting +$804.60.

- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Bahia +0.5: AI saw 77.1% vs market's 52.6% (24.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Bahia +0.5: AI saw 76.9% vs market's 52.6% (24.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Bahia +0.5: AI saw 75.7% vs market's 52.6% (23.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 67.9% vs market's 49.5% (18.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 67.9% vs market's 49.8% (18.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/1L/2V, +$441.60 (ROI: +23.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, +$363.00 (ROI: +20.2%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$180.00 (ROI: +90.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-25.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 69–31 in Bahia's favor. Bahia had 23 shots (9 on target) versus Botafogo's 13 (6 on target). Expected goals: Bahia 2.42 — Botafogo 0.95. Corners: 9-4.