Atletico Paranaense

3 - 1

Vitoria

Atletico Paranaense hosted Vitoria in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 3-1. Goals: Rene (22'), K. Viveros (34' pen), K. Viveros (90'), Luiz Gustavo (90'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 7 waves, achieving 57% precision with a net result of +$1049.50 (ROI: +15.0%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -1.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Vitoria leading 0-1 at 25'. Rene scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Paranaense 0. Average expected value was 18.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Paranaense 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.7% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 16.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1100.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Vitoria leading 0-1 at 28'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Paranaense -0.5. Average expected value was 28.3%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Paranaense -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.2% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 26.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1750.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after K. Viveros's equalizer at 34'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Paranaense and Vitoria -0.5. Average expected value was 3.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting $-100.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 50' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 50'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Vitoria -0.5. Average expected value was 2.7%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 54' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 54'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Vitoria -0.5. Average expected value was 4.4%, with a combined stake of $1500. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 60' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 60'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1500. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$799.50. ### Wave 7 — Minute 64' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 64'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.7%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.

- **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense -0.5: AI saw 63.2% vs market's 36.4% (26.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense -0.5: AI saw 61.7% vs market's 36.4% (25.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense 0: AI saw 63.7% vs market's 47.6% (16.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense 0: AI saw 63.3% vs market's 47.6% (15.7pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1091.50 (ROI: +36.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$691.50 (ROI: +27.7%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-733.50 (ROI: -48.9%)

Atletico Paranaense had 22 shots (10 on target) versus Vitoria's 0 (0 on target).