Atletico Paranaense1 - 0Mirassol
Atletico ParanaenseWhy did AI enter 4 times at 10', 47', 50', 57' — and still finish $-1667?
Match Overview
Atletico Paranaense hosted Mirassol in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-0. Goals: K. Viveros (88'). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 4 waves, achieving 29% precision with a net result of $-1667.00 (ROI: -52.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.99 to 1.94; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Mirassol 0. Average expected value was 12.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Mirassol 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 49.1% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 10.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 47'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Mirassol 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 19.0%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Mirassol 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.7% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 24.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 50' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 50'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.7%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 57' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 57'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$533.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Mirassol 0: AI saw 61.7% vs market's 37.4% (24.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Mirassol 0: AI saw 60.6% vs market's 37.4% (23.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Mirassol 0: AI saw 49.1% vs market's 38.5% (10.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-733.50 (ROI: -48.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-733.50 (ROI: -48.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 50–50 in Atletico Paranaense's deficit. Atletico Paranaense had 13 shots (2 on target) versus Mirassol's 9 (2 on target). Expected goals: Atletico Paranaense 1.23 — Mirassol 0.48. Corners: 6-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -52.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-200.00.
A tough session at -52.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-200.00.
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