Atletico Paranaense

2 - 0

Internacional

Atletico Paranaense hosted Internacional in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 2-0. Goals: Leozinho (45'), K. Viveros (60'). OddsFlow deployed 19 trades across 5 waves, achieving 63% precision with a net result of +$1765.10 (ROI: +38.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 2 to 2.02; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 2.35 to 2.15.

### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Paranaense -0.5. Average expected value was 32.9%, with a combined stake of $350. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Paranaense -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.5% probability versus the market's implied 48.1% — a 19.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.08. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$374.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Atletico Paranaense. Average expected value was 13.7%, with a combined stake of $2145. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Paranaense (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 54.6% probability versus the market's implied 43.9% — a 10.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.28. **Result:** All 8 trades won, netting +$2361.60. ### Wave 3 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Atletico Paranaense leading 1-0 at 46'. Leozinho scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Internacional 0. Average expected value was 15.0%, with a combined stake of $1148. The sharpest edge was on Internacional 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 54.9% probability versus the market's implied 46.3% — a 8.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.16. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-1148.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 54' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Atletico Paranaense leading 1-0 at 54'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2. Average expected value was 25.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 2 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 60.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 10.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 57' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Atletico Paranaense leading 1-0 at 57'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.75. Average expected value was 13.4%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 58.5% — a 11.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.71. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$177.50.

- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense -0.5: AI saw 67.5% vs market's 48.1% (19.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense -0.5: AI saw 67.5% vs market's 48.1% (19.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense -0.5: AI saw 67.5% vs market's 49.0% (18.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 57'** — Over/Under Over 1.75: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 58.5% (11.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Moneyline Atletico Paranaense: AI saw 54.6% vs market's 43.9% (10.7pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 4W/3L/1V, +$775.98 (ROI: +36.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/3L, +$615.12 (ROI: +37.2%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$374.00 (ROI: +44.0%)

Possession was 46–54 in Atletico Paranaense's deficit. Atletico Paranaense had 14 shots (4 on target) versus Internacional's 13 (3 on target). Expected goals: Atletico Paranaense 2.92 — Internacional 1.15. Corners: 3-7.