Atletico Paranaense1 - 1Flamengo
Atletico ParanaenseWhy did AI enter 3 times at 35', 43', 50' — and still finish +$2761?
Match Overview
Atletico Paranaense hosted Flamengo in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: S. Mendoza (11'), Pedro (84'). Flamengo received a red card (Danilo, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 3 waves, achieving 75% precision with a net result of +$2761.42 (ROI: +43.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.99 to 1.95; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.81 to 2.02; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.29 to 3.44.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Atletico Paranaense leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo -0.5. Average expected value was 22.0%, with a combined stake of $2738. The sharpest edge was on Flamengo -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 32.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$738.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 43' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Atletico Paranaense leading 1-0 at 43'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.25 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 28.2%, with a combined stake of $1176. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 67.9% probability versus the market's implied 48.3% — a 19.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.07. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$818.54. ### Wave 3 — Minute 50' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Atletico Paranaense leading 1-0 at 50'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.25 and Flamengo -0.5 and Under 2.5 and Atletico Paranaense. Average expected value was 27.8%, with a combined stake of $2463. The sharpest edge was on Flamengo -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.5% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 36.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 5 of 7 trades won, netting +$1204.88.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap Flamengo -0.5: AI saw 84.5% vs market's 47.6% (36.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap Flamengo -0.5: AI saw 84.2% vs market's 47.6% (36.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Flamengo -0.5: AI saw 82.9% vs market's 50.0% (32.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Flamengo -0.5: AI saw 82.7% vs market's 50.0% (32.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Over/Under Under 2.25: AI saw 74.2% vs market's 53.8% (20.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/2L/2V, +$984.88 (ROI: +43.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/1L/2V, +$797.50 (ROI: +39.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$759.04 (ROI: +39.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$220.00 (ROI: +110.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 36–64 in Atletico Paranaense's deficit. Atletico Paranaense had 18 shots (5 on target) versus Flamengo's 12 (3 on target). Expected goals: Atletico Paranaense 1.01 — Flamengo 1.42. Corners: 9-7.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +43.3% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$984.88.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +43.3% ROI on 16 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$984.88.
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