Atletico-MG

3 - 1

Mirassol

Atletico-MG hosted Mirassol in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 3-1. Goals: A. Minda (17'), Willian Machado (40'), Maycon (59' pen), Maycon (61' pen), M. Cisse (82'). OddsFlow deployed 22 trades across 8 waves, achieving 23% precision with a net result of $-2376.00 (ROI: -28.1%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Mirassol. Average expected value was 30.5%, with a combined stake of $25. The sharpest edge was on Mirassol (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 35.8% probability versus the market's implied 26.0% — a 9.8 percentage point gap at odds of 3.84. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-25.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Mirassol 0. Average expected value was 30.5%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Mirassol 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.7% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 28.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Atletico-MG leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Mirassol -1. Average expected value was 53.0%, with a combined stake of $1961. The sharpest edge was on Mirassol -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 93.2% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 50.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Willian Machado's equalizer at 40'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Mirassol 0 and Draw and Mirassol. Average expected value was 29.3%, with a combined stake of $2155. The sharpest edge was on Mirassol 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 70.7% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 33.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 7 trades lost, netting $-2155.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 53' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Willian Machado's equalizer at 40'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 57' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 57'. Mirassol made 4 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$533.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 61' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Maycon's equalizer at 61'. Mirassol made 6 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.75 and Under 3.5 and Over 3.5. Average expected value was 34.6%, with a combined stake of $2100. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 80.7% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 30.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-529.00. ### Wave 8 — Minute 69' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Atletico-MG leading 2-1 at 69'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5. Average expected value was 25.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 60.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 10.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$500.00.

- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Mirassol -1: AI saw 93.2% vs market's 42.6% (50.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Mirassol -1: AI saw 93.0% vs market's 42.6% (50.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Mirassol 0: AI saw 70.7% vs market's 37.4% (33.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Mirassol 0: AI saw 70.1% vs market's 37.4% (32.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 61'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 80.7% vs market's 50.0% (30.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$300.00 (ROI: +42.9%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-25.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/4L/1V, $-1020.00 (ROI: -28.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 2W/8L/1V, $-1631.00 (ROI: -39.2%)

Possession was 51–49 in Atletico-MG's favor. Atletico-MG had 15 shots (6 on target) versus Mirassol's 6 (3 on target). Expected goals: Atletico-MG 2.53 — Mirassol 0.82. Corners: 5-6.