Atletico-MG0 - 4Flamengo
Atletico-MGWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 30' — and still finish $-3055?
Match Overview
Atletico-MG hosted Flamengo in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 0-4. Goals: Pedro (8'), G. Plata (31'), G. de Arrascaeta (45'), Pedro (84'). OddsFlow deployed 5 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-3055.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0.25; the home moneyline shortened from 3.84 to 3.68.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Flamengo leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico-MG +1. Average expected value was 26.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Atletico-MG +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.3% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 23.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Flamengo leading 0-1 at 30'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 33.7%, with a combined stake of $2055. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 76.2% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 32.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-2055.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 30'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 76.2% vs market's 43.5% (32.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 75.9% vs market's 43.5% (32.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 76.7% vs market's 47.6% (29.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Atletico-MG +1: AI saw 66.3% vs market's 42.6% (23.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Atletico-MG +1: AI saw 66.2% vs market's 42.6% (23.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-717.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1166.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1172.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Atletico-MG had 17 shots (6 on target) versus Flamengo's 0 (0 on target). Expected goals: Atletico-MG 0.88 — Flamengo 0.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at $-717.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at $-717.00.
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