Atletico-MG1 - 1Botafogo
Atletico-MGWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 25', 64' — and still finish +$66?
Match Overview
Atletico-MG hosted Botafogo in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: M. Cassierra (23'), Arthur Cabral (90'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 3 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$66.45 (ROI: +2.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.8 to 1.87.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Botafogo. Average expected value was 37.6%, with a combined stake of $373. The sharpest edge was on Botafogo (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 39.1% probability versus the market's implied 28.4% — a 10.7 percentage point gap at odds of 3.52. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-373.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Atletico-MG leading 1-0 at 25'. M. Cassierra scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Botafogo -1 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 31.8%, with a combined stake of $1848. The sharpest edge was on Botafogo -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.3% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 39.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$172.95. ### Wave 3 — Minute 64' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Atletico-MG leading 1-0 at 64'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$266.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Botafogo -1: AI saw 88.3% vs market's 49.4% (39.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 79.5% vs market's 60.0% (19.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Moneyline Botafogo: AI saw 39.1% vs market's 28.4% (10.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$439.45 (ROI: +18.7%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-373.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 44–56 in Atletico-MG's deficit. Atletico-MG had 17 shots (7 on target) versus Botafogo's 18 (5 on target). Expected goals: Atletico-MG 0.86 — Botafogo 1.68. Corners: 6-4.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +2.4% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$439.45.
A positive result with +2.4% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$66.45. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$439.45.
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