Full Time
Primeira Liga · Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga · 2026-05-16

SC BragaSC Braga
2 - 2
EstrelaEstrela

$-18.60
Match Precision33%
Signal Hit Rate1/3
Model Lineup
🛡️
Oddsflow Core Strategy
+$6
★★★★★
1W-0L · 100%
PreMatch Edge
$-25
☆☆☆☆
0W-2L · 0%
🧠 Key Question

Mengapa AI masuk 2 kali di 0', 10' — dan tetap selesai $-19?

Trade Story

Ringkasan Pertandingan

SC Braga menjamu Estrela di Primeira Liga, skor akhir 2-2. Gol: S. Lekovic (5'), S. Lekovic (6'), G. Martinez (15'), G. Martinez (16'), P. Victor (89'), P. Victor (90'), S. Lekovic (90'). OddsFlow menjalankan 3 trade dalam 2 gelombang, akurasi 33%, hasil bersih $-18.60 (ROI: -64.1%).

Odds Pra-Pertandingan

Handicap Asia bertahan di -0.75, tapi odds tuan rumah berubah dari 1.85 ke 1.92.

Analisis Gelombang Trading

### Gelombang 1 — Menit 0' (Skor: 0-0) **Konteks:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model memasuki pasar Handicap Asia, target SC Braga -0.75. EV rata-rata 7.8%, total taruhan $25. **Hasil:** Semua 2 trade kalah, bersih $-25.00. ### Gelombang 2 — Menit 10' (Skor: 0-1) **Konteks:** Estrela leading 0-1 at 10'. S. Lekovic scored moments ago. 1 model memasuki pasar Handicap Asia, target SC Braga -0.5. EV rata-rata 25.4%, total taruhan $4. Edge terbesar pada SC Braga -0.5 (Handicap Asia): OddsFlow menghitung 61.6% vs pasar 38.5% — selisih 23.1pp pada odds 2.6. **Hasil:** Semua 1 trade menang, bersih +$6.40.

Momen Mispricing Utama

- **Menit 10'** — Handicap Asia SC Braga -0.5: AI melihat 61.6% vs pasar 38.5% (gap 23.1pp). teridentifikasi dengan benar.

Performa Model

- **Oddsflow Core Strategy**: 1 trade, 1W/0L, +$6.40 (ROI: +160.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trade, 0W/2L, $-25.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Statistik Pertandingan

Penguasaan bola 74–26, SC Braga unggul. SC Braga punya 14 tembakan (4 tepat sasaran), Estrela 6 (4 tepat sasaran). Expected goals: SC Braga 2.41 — Estrela 0.22.

Kesimpulan

Sesi sulit dengan ROI -64.1%. Pasar bergerak melawan posisi OddsFlow. Performa terbaik: Oddsflow Core Strategy dengan +$6.40.

Trade Waves
Match Timeline
46'🔄
M
G. Martinez(assist: L. Lelo)SC Braga
68'🔄
H
S. van Hooijdonk(assist: Robinho)Estrela
68'🔄
S
I. Stoica(assist: Jovane)Estrela
68'🔄
H
R. Horta(assist: Gorby)SC Braga
68'🔄
D
G. Doue(assist: L. Antonetti)Estrela
69'🔄
S
I. Stoica(assist: Jovane)Estrela
78'🔄
M
P. Moreira(assist: K. Jansson)Estrela
80'🔄
H
L. Hornicek(assist: J. Carvalho)SC Braga
80'🔄
L
Luisinho(assist: A. Gil)SC Braga
85'🔄
O
P. Oliveira(assist: J. Noro)SC Braga
90'+3🔄
M
A. Marcus(assist: J. Meireles)Estrela
Odds Movement
Key Mispricing
Match Statistics
Pre-Match Odds
Verdict

A tough session at -64.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$6.40.

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