## ✅ Post-Match Audit: Crystal Palace 2-1 Newcastle 📋 **Pre-Match Read:** Our montecarlo_v1.0 model favored Newcastle at 42.1% — the highest probability of the three outcomes — pointing to a 1-2 away win. Crystal Palace entered as underdogs at 30.9%. The over 2.5 goals market sat at 56.3%, and our expected total landed at 2.9 goals. ⚽ **What Actually Happened:** Crystal Palace won 2-1 at home. Three goals were scored. The underdog prevailed. ✅ **Right:** Total goals (3) cleared the 2.5 line — our model's 56.3% probability proved correct. The expected goal total of 2.9 was essentially spot-on against the actual 3. ❌ **Wrong:** The winner call missed entirely. We identified Newcastle as the value play and projected a 1-2 scoreline — both were wrong. Crystal Palace, carrying only a 30.9% win probability in our model, took all three points. The 14 live signals detected across HANDICAP, MONEYLINE_1X2, and OVER_UNDER categories did not override the pre-match directional miss. 📊 **Accuracy Log:** 1 of 3 primary markets correct (over/under ✅ | predicted winner ❌ | most likely score ❌). Model directionally favored the losing side. 💬 With Newcastle's absences factored in and Palace's home record this season — did the model underweight home advantage, or was this simply variance doing what 30.9% probability allows? 🔍 Full verification log: oddsflow.community/audit/cpfc-nufc-pl 🔍 [View Full Prediction](/en/predictions/2026-04-13/crystal-palace-vs-newcastle-1379283) | [Verified Track Record](/en/performance/verification-proof) --- *Post-match verification by OddsFlow — transparent, accountable, evidence-first*