## ✅ Post-Match Audit: Sassuolo 2-1 Como 📋 **Pre-Match Read:** Our montecarlo_v1.0 model heavily favored Como with a 59.3% away win probability, identifying them as the clear stronger side based on attacking metrics and a positive lineup shock. The most likely scoreline was projected as 0-2, and we expected an average of 2.9 total goals. ⚽ **What Actually Happened:** Sassuolo won at home 2-1, directly contradicting our primary outcome call. Three goals were scored in total. ✅ **Right:** The over 2.5 goals call lands correctly — 3 goals scored against our 55.4% probability flag, and our expected total of 2.9 was essentially spot-on. Goal volume read was solid. ❌ **Wrong:** The result call was the miss that matters most. We gave Como a 59.3% win probability and flagged a market edge on the away side — Sassuolo winning carried only a 17.6% implied probability in our model. The most likely score (0-2) was also wide of the mark. This was a clear model miss on outcome direction. 📊 **Accuracy Log:** 1 of 3 primary predictions correct. Winner: ❌ | Scoreline: ❌ | Over 2.5 goals: ✅ 🔍 Full prediction data available at OddsFlow Verification Log. 💬 Was this a genuine Sassuolo performance or did Como underdeliver on the metrics that made us favor them so strongly? Community thoughts welcome below. 🔍 [View Full Prediction](/en/predictions/2026-04-17/sassuolo-vs-como-1378191) | [Verified Track Record](/en/performance/verification-proof) --- *Post-match verification by OddsFlow — transparent, accountable, evidence-first*