Liverpool's 2025-26 season has been a study in the gap between process and results. Their expected goals (xG) numbers tell a story of a team creating enough quality to be comfortably in the top four. The actual points total is more modest. The gap is explained primarily by two factors: conversion rate and defensive concentration at crucial moments. Attacking xG: Liverpool have created enough high-quality chances to be scoring significantly more. Mohamed Salah's conversion is reliable, but the supporting cast — Ekitike, Gakpo, Diaz — have underperformed their individual xG in certain stretches of the season. Better finishing from these players over the run-in closes the statistical gap. Defensive xG against: Liverpool have occasionally allowed good chances in moments where their shape was disorganised. The goals conceded in the final 10 minutes of games — where concentration drops — are above the league average for a team with their defensive quality. The optimistic read: the quality is there. The numbers say Liverpool should be top four. The run-in offers them the chance to convert process into results with the urgency that comes from knowing what is at stake. Fulham on Saturday is the chance to start closing the gap between what the stats say and what the table shows. 📅 Sat 11 Apr, 08:30 UTC | Anfield 🏆 GW30 | The xG Case for Liverpool