Will USA advance from the group stage at World Cup 2026?

OddsFlow AI gives USA a 65.2% probability of advancing from the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This is based on Dixon-Coles modeling with Monte Carlo simulations across all group-stage scenarios.

Can USA win the 2026 World Cup?

USA has a 1.1% probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup according to OddsFlow AI analysis. The team has an overall rating of 53/100 (Attack: 51, Midfield: 55, Defense: 46, Goalkeeping: 62).

What is USA's overall rating for World Cup 2026?

USA has an AI-generated overall rating of 53/100 for the 2026 World Cup. Breakdown: Attack 51, Midfield 55, Defense 46, Goalkeeping 62. Playing style: Possession-based, Total football.

Who are USA's star players at World Cup 2026?

USA's top players for the 2026 World Cup include: A. Freeman (Defender, OPR 72, OPR 72); R. Pepi (Attacker, OPR 70, 19G 4A (1857min)); S. Berhalter (Midfielder, OPR 69, 7G 5A (1813min)); C. Richards (Defender, OPR 69, 3G 0A (4807min)); C. Pulišić (Attacker, OPR 69, 12G 6A (2152min)).

How strong is USA's squad for World Cup 2026?

USA's Dixon-Coles strength metrics: Attack power 51.4, Midfield control 54.4, Defensive solidity 46.3, GK rating 82.7. Lambda attack 1.39, lambda defense 0.93. Chemistry score 25, squad depth 84. Top scorer: R. Pepi (19 goals).

USA — World Cup 2026 AI Analysis (Rating 53/100)

OddsFlow AI Analysis

53الإجمالي

Possession-basedTotal football

⚡الهجوم

⚙️الوسط

🛡️الدفاع

🧤حراسة المرمى

26الحجم

25.9متوسط العمر

60.9متوسط OVR

84.0درجة العمق

53الإجمالي

Possession-basedTotal football

⚡الهجوم

⚙️الوسط

🛡️الدفاع

🧤حراسة المرمى

26الحجم

25.9متوسط العمر

60.9متوسط OVR

84.0درجة العمق

اللاعبون النجوم

A. Freeman

Defender

OPR 72

R. Pepi

Attacker

19G 4A (1857min)

S. Berhalter

Midfielder

7G 5A (1813min)

C. Richards

Defender

3G 0A (4807min)

C. Pulišić

Attacker

12G 6A (2152min)

احتمالات البطولة

1.1%البطلالبطل

1.1%

65.2%التأهل من المجموعةالتأهل من المجموعة

65.2%

Manager & Tactical Profile

· Appointed

Team Strength & Intelligence

ATK

MID

DEF

1.39

λ Attack

0.93

λ Defense

Chemistry

Depth

5.4

Star Gap

25.9

Avg Age

Top Scorer

R. Pepi

19 goals

Best Rated

S. Berhalter

7.54

Club Clusters

PSV Eindhoven (2)Borussia Mönchengladbach (2)

WC Experience

Appearances11

Best Finish3rd 1930

Last WC2022

Physical Resilience

Avg Mins/Season2,240

FatigueFast recovery — young squad handles cumulative fatigue well

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

Hot Climate %46%

Cooperation

Score41/100

Total Clubs23

Same-Club Pairs2

Same-League102

Average — typical international squad

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

WinDrawLoss

كوراساو

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 48%

هايتي

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

جنوب أفريقيا

0-1▼

53%

26%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 47%

العراق

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 47%

South Korea

0-1▼

53%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Iran

1-0▼

52%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

أوزبكستان

0-1▼

52%

25%

23%

xG 1.5 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

Cape Verde Islands

1-1▼

52%

24%

xG 1.7 – 1.1O2.5 51%BTTS 53%

مصر

1-1▼

49%

24%

27%

xG 1.7 – 1.2O2.5 55%BTTS 57%

قطر

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

تونس

1-1▼

44%

26%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 56%

غانا

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

أستراليا

1-1▼

43%

27%

30%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

نيوزيلندا

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

السعودية

1-1▼

43%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

بنما

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

المكسيك

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

الأردن

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 52%

الجزائر

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

كندا

1-1▼

41%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

باراغواي

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

الكونغو الديمقراطية

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

الإكوادور

1-1▼

40%

26%

33%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

النرويج

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

اسكتلندا

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

كولومبيا

1-1▼

38%

26%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

اليابان

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

المغرب

1-1▼

38%

27%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

سويسرا

1-1▼

38%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

النمسا

1-1▼

37%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

السويد

1-1▼

37%

27%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

السنغال

1-1▼

36%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

أوروغواي

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

كرواتيا

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

تركيا

1-1▼

35%

27%

38%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 54%

هولندا

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

البرازيل

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

بلجيكا

1-1▼

34%

27%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

الأرجنتين

1-1▼

33%

26%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

إسبانيا

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

ألمانيا

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

البرتغال

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

إنجلترا

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

فرنسا

1-1▼

30%

26%

44%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Rank Distribution Across Scenarios

Heat ×0

▼1

Heat ×0.5

▼1

Heat ×1.25

▼1

Heat ×1.5

▼1

Altitude ×0

▼1

Altitude ×3

▼1

Altitude ×1.75

▼1

Travel ×1.25

▼1

Travel ×1.5

▼1

Travel ×2

▼1

Travel ×2.5

▼1

Travel ×3

▼1

Travel ×1.75

▼1

Host ×1.5

▼1

Host ×3

▼1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▼1

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

▼1

Spread 2.1

▼1

Spread 2.5

▼1

Spread 3

▼1

Penalty rand=0.7

▼1

Baseline

—

Heat ×0.75

—

Heat ×2

—

Heat ×2.5

—

Heat ×1.75

—

Altitude ×0.5

—

Altitude ×0.75

—

Altitude ×1.25

—

Altitude ×0.25

—

Travel ×0.75

—

Host ×2

—

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

—

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

—

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

—

Spread 1.5

—

Uplift 1.15

—

Altitude ×2.5

▲1

Host ×0.5

▲1

Penalty rand=0.5

▲1

Uplift 1

▲1

Heat ×3

▲2

Heat ×0.25

▲2

Altitude ×1.5

▲2

Altitude ×2

▲2

Travel ×0

▲2

Travel ×0.5

▲2

Travel ×0.25

▲2

Host ×0

▲2

Spread 1

▲2

Penalty rand=0.3

▲2

Baseline: #6·Lower rank = stronger

baseline

1 scenarios · #6

heat

10 scenarios · #5–#8

altitude

10 scenarios · #5–#8

travel

10 scenarios · #5–#8

host

5 scenarios · #5–#8

mismatch

5 scenarios · #5–#6

spread

5 scenarios · #5–#8

penalty

3 scenarios · #5–#8

uplift

2 scenarios · #6–#7

Team Strength & Intelligence

ATK

MID

DEF

1.39

λ Attack

0.93

λ Defense

Chemistry

Depth

5.4

Star Gap

25.9

Avg Age

Top Scorer

R. Pepi

19 goals

Best Rated

S. Berhalter

7.54

Club Clusters

PSV Eindhoven (2)Borussia Mönchengladbach (2)

WC Experience

Appearances11

Best Finish3rd 1930

Last WC2022

Physical Resilience

Avg Mins/Season2,240

FatigueFast recovery — young squad handles cumulative fatigue well

MiamiMODERATE

MonterreyMODERATE

Hot Climate %46%

Cooperation

Score41/100

Total Clubs23

Same-Club Pairs2

Same-League102

Average — typical international squad

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

WinDrawLoss

كوراساو

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 48%

هايتي

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

جنوب أفريقيا

0-1▼

53%

26%

21%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 47%

العراق

0-1▼

53%

25%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 46%BTTS 47%

South Korea

0-1▼

53%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

Iran

1-0▼

52%

26%

22%

xG 1.6 – 0.9O2.5 45%BTTS 47%

أوزبكستان

0-1▼

52%

25%

23%

xG 1.5 – 0.9O2.5 44%BTTS 46%

Cape Verde Islands

1-1▼

52%

24%

xG 1.7 – 1.1O2.5 51%BTTS 53%

مصر

1-1▼

49%

24%

27%

xG 1.7 – 1.2O2.5 55%BTTS 57%

قطر

1-1▼

45%

25%

30%

xG 1.5 – 1.1O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

تونس

1-1▼

44%

26%

30%

xG 1.6 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 56%

غانا

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

أستراليا

1-1▼

43%

27%

30%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

نيوزيلندا

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.5 – 1.2O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

السعودية

1-1▼

43%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

بنما

1-1▼

43%

26%

31%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

المكسيك

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 53%BTTS 57%

الأردن

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.1O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1-1▼

42%

26%

32%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 49%BTTS 52%

الجزائر

1-1▼

42%

25%

33%

xG 1.5 – 1.3O2.5 54%BTTS 57%

كندا

1-1▼

41%

26%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

باراغواي

1-1▼

41%

26%

33%

xG 1.4 – 1.2O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

الكونغو الديمقراطية

1-1▼

41%

25%

34%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

الإكوادور

1-1▼

40%

26%

33%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 45%BTTS 50%

النرويج

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 50%BTTS 55%

اسكتلندا

1-1▼

39%

26%

35%

xG 1.4 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

كولومبيا

1-1▼

38%

26%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

Czech Republic

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

Ivory Coast

1-1▼

38%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

اليابان

1-1▼

38%

25%

37%

xG 1.4 – 1.4O2.5 51%BTTS 55%

المغرب

1-1▼

38%

27%

35%

xG 1.3 – 1.2O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

سويسرا

1-1▼

38%

26%

37%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 52%

النمسا

1-1▼

37%

26%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

السويد

1-1▼

37%

27%

36%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 46%BTTS 51%

السنغال

1-1▼

36%

25%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

أوروغواي

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

كرواتيا

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.3 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

تركيا

1-1▼

35%

27%

38%

xG 1.3 – 1.3O2.5 48%BTTS 54%

هولندا

1-1▼

35%

26%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

البرازيل

1-1▼

34%

26%

40%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

بلجيكا

1-1▼

34%

27%

39%

xG 1.2 – 1.3O2.5 47%BTTS 52%

الأرجنتين

1-1▼

33%

26%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 54%

إسبانيا

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

ألمانيا

1-1▼

32%

27%

41%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 48%BTTS 53%

البرتغال

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 49%BTTS 53%

إنجلترا

1-1▼

32%

26%

42%

xG 1.2 – 1.4O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

فرنسا

1-1▼

30%

26%

44%

xG 1.2 – 1.5O2.5 50%BTTS 54%

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

Rank Distribution Across Scenarios

Heat ×0

▼1

Heat ×0.5

▼1

Heat ×1.25

▼1

Heat ×1.5

▼1

Altitude ×0

▼1

Altitude ×3

▼1

Altitude ×1.75

▼1

Travel ×1.25

▼1

Travel ×1.5

▼1

Travel ×2

▼1

Travel ×2.5

▼1

Travel ×3

▼1

Travel ×1.75

▼1

Host ×1.5

▼1

Host ×3

▼1

Mismatch t=0.15 a=0.7

▼1

Mismatch t=0.2 a=0.9

▼1

Spread 2.1

▼1

Spread 2.5

▼1

Spread 3

▼1

Penalty rand=0.7

▼1

Baseline

—

Heat ×0.75

—

Heat ×2

—

Heat ×2.5

—

Heat ×1.75

—

Altitude ×0.5

—

Altitude ×0.75

—

Altitude ×1.25

—

Altitude ×0.25

—

Travel ×0.75

—

Host ×2

—

Mismatch t=0.05 a=0.3

—

Mismatch t=0.1 a=0.5

—

Mismatch t=0.3 a=1.2

—

Spread 1.5

—

Uplift 1.15

—

Altitude ×2.5

▲1

Host ×0.5

▲1

Penalty rand=0.5

▲1

Uplift 1

▲1

Heat ×3

▲2

Heat ×0.25

▲2

Altitude ×1.5

▲2

Altitude ×2

▲2

Travel ×0

▲2

Travel ×0.5

▲2

Travel ×0.25

▲2

Host ×0

▲2

Spread 1

▲2

Penalty rand=0.3

▲2

Baseline: #6·Lower rank = stronger

baseline

1 scenarios · #6

heat

10 scenarios · #5–#8

altitude

10 scenarios · #5–#8

travel

10 scenarios · #5–#8

host

5 scenarios · #5–#8

mismatch

5 scenarios · #5–#6

spread

5 scenarios · #5–#8

penalty

3 scenarios · #5–#8

uplift

2 scenarios · #6–#7

أمريكا

OddsFlow AI Analysis

اللاعبون النجوم

احتمالات البطولة

Manager & Tactical Profile

Team Strength & Intelligence

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

احصل على إشارة AI مباشرة مجانية — بدون تأخير

أمريكا

OddsFlow AI Analysis

اللاعبون النجوم

احتمالات البطولة

Manager & Tactical Profile

Team Strength & Intelligence

H2H Matchup Predictions(47)

Sensitivity Analysis(51 scenarios)

احصل على إشارة AI مباشرة مجانية — بدون تأخير