## ✅ Post-Match Audit: Celta Vigo 0–3 Oviedo 📋 **Pre-Match Read:** OddsFlow's montecarlo_v1.0 model assigned Celta Vigo a 60.4% win probability at home, flagging them as clear favorites. The most likely scoreline was projected at 2–0 to Celta, with an expected total of 3.2 goals and a 62.6% probability of clearing 2.5. ⚽ **What Actually Happened:** Oviedo — given just a 17.6% chance of winning — produced a dominant 3–0 away victory, completely flipping the anticipated script. ✅ **Right:** The over 2.5 goals call held up. Three goals were scored, aligning closely with the model's 3.2 expected total. That's a clean hit on the totals side. ❌ **Wrong:** Nearly everything directional. The predicted winner (Celta) was incorrect. The most likely scoreline (2–0 Home) was the mirror opposite of reality. The model's confidence in Celta's home strength and offensive output proved entirely misplaced on the night. Oviedo, the heavy underdog, dictated the match completely. 📊 **Accuracy Log:** 1 of 3 core predictions correct (over 2.5 ✅ | predicted winner ❌ | scoreline ❌). A low-probability outcome materialized, and we're logging it fully. 🔗 Full verification data: [oddsflow.com/verify/celta-oviedo](#) 💬 Oviedo were priced as heavy underdogs — what do you think the model missed most: Celta's defensive vulnerabilities, Oviedo's away form, or something else entirely? 🔍 [View Full Prediction](/en/predictions/2026-04-13/celta-vigo-vs-oviedo-1391121) | [Verified Track Record](/en/performance/verification-proof) --- *Post-match verification by OddsFlow — transparent, accountable, evidence-first*